Uganda's coffee export earnings recorded a sharp decline in May 2026 as lower international prices and reduced export volumes weighed on the country's monthly performance, despite the sector maintaining strong annual growth.
According to the latest monthly report from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), coffee export earnings fell to $151.7 million (about Shs555.1 billion) in May 2026, down from $242.5 million (about Shs887.3 billion) in May 2025.
Export volumes also declined by 21.6%, falling to 617,491 60-kilogram bags from 788,115 bags during the same period last year.
The ministry attributed the decline to falling international coffee prices, driven largely by expectations of improved global supplies. Prospects of a stronger 2026/27 coffee harvest in Brazil—the world's largest coffee producer—have boosted market confidence, placing downward pressure on global prices.
The average export price of Ugandan coffee dropped to $4.10 per kilogram in May, slightly lower than $4.12 per kilogram recorded in April and significantly below the $5.10 per kilogram registered in May 2025. The decline reflects shifting global market dynamics following a period of elevated prices caused by supply concerns in major coffee-producing countries.
Strong annual performance
Despite the monthly slowdown, Uganda's coffee sector continued to post impressive long-term growth.
Over the 12 months ending May 2026, Uganda exported 8.6 million bags of coffee worth $2.3 billion (approximately Shs8.42 trillion). This represents a 16% increase in export volumes and an 11% rise in export earnings compared to the previous 12-month period.
The sustained growth has been attributed to increased coffee production, expansion of acreage under cultivation and continued government interventions aimed at improving productivity, quality and export competitiveness.
Italy retained its position as Uganda's largest coffee export market during May, accounting for 26% of the country's total coffee exports, up from 19.3% in April.
The increase in Italy's market share indicates continued strong demand for Ugandan coffee in Europe, even as overall export earnings declined because of lower global prices and reduced shipment volumes.
Other traditional markets across Europe, Asia and North America also continued to import Ugandan coffee, albeit at varying levels.
Coffee remains Uganda's leading foreign exchange earner and one of its most valuable agricultural exports, supporting millions of households engaged in farming, processing, marketing and trade.
However, the latest figures underscore the sector's vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity prices, which are influenced by weather conditions, production forecasts and demand trends in major coffee-producing and consuming countries.
Industry stakeholders are expected to closely monitor developments in the international coffee market over the coming months, particularly the progress of Brazil's harvest and global supply conditions, both of which are expected to continue shaping export prices and Uganda's earnings.
While the decline in May represents a temporary setback, the strong annual performance suggests Uganda's coffee sector remains on a solid growth trajectory, supported by sustained global demand for its high-quality Arabica and Robusta coffee.
